Ryan ALM
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U.S. Rates Likely to Fall - Here's the Good and Bad
Unfortunately, there exists weakness in the U.S. labor force, as a notable deterioration in job creation, initial jobless claims, and job openings is taking place at this time. This weakness will likely lead the Federal Reserve to lower U.S. interest...
Not So Fast
In addition to publishing my thoughts through this blog, I frequently put sound bites out through LinkedIn.com. The following is an example of such a comment: Given Powell's statement about "balancing dual mandates", it seems premature to assume that the...
Are Investors About to Get Their Comeuppance?
As we've discussed in this blog on many occasions, the U.S. interest rate decline from 1982 to 2022 fueled risk assets well beyond their fundamentals. During the rate decline, investors became accustomed to the US Federal Reserve stepping in when...
Taylor-Made?
The Federal Reserve meeting notes have been published, and there seems to be little appetite among the Fed Governors to reduce U.S. interest rates at the next meeting. They continue to believe that the recently inflated tariffs and current trade...
Nothing Here! Really?
Yesterday's financial news delivered an inflation surprise (0.5% vs. 0.3%), at least to me and the bond market, if not to the U.S. equity market. The Federal reserve had recently announced a likely pause in their rate reduction activity given...
Is Now The Time To Act?
By: Russ Kamp, Managing Director, Ryan ALM, Inc. Equity market participants were recently reminded of the fact that markets can fall, and unfortunately they usually don't decline with any kind of notice. The impetus behind the markets' most recent challenging...
We Suggested That It Might Just Be Overbought
By: Russ Kamp, Managing Director, Ryan ALM, Inc. Regular readers of this blog might recall that on September 5th we produced a post titled, "Overbought?" that suggested that bond investors had gotten ahead of themselves in anticipation of the Fed's...
The Heavyweight Fight May Be Tilting Toward Fiscal Policy
By: Russ Kamp, Managing Director, Ryan ALM, Inc. You may recall that on March 22, 2024, I produced a post titled, "Are We Witnessing A Heavyweight Fight?" . The gist of the blog post was the conflict between the Fed's...